2026-10-12

Trench lessons — 2026-10-12

Key takeaways
  • Bitquery, 8.2M pump.fun launches: since July, bundles hand their tokens to other wallets, which beats every "still holds" check
  • Platform watch: nothing breaks

Bitquery, 8.2M pump.fun launches: since July, bundles hand their tokens to other wallets, which beats every "still holds" checkevidence: A dataset

  • What the study found (Bitquery, "Pump.fun devs' bundles made $579M+, snipers just $31.5M", verified Oct 10; Oct 30 2025 – Oct 7 2026):
  • A wallet other than the dev bought in block 0 on 38% of new coins (50% within 3 blocks). The dev's own bundle was in block 0 on 21%, sniper bots on 28%, both on 12%.
  • Median bundle takes 10% of supply. Devs sell within a minute on 65% of launches.
  • The new part: from July, bundled wallets stopped selling themselves. They pass tokens to other wallets, which sell into the pool. On 98% of those launches the dev's wallets plus the wallets they fed took out ≥90% of what went in within 3 days. Transfer-fed sellers took 35–83% as much SOL as the devs and bundles did on sample days.
  • Fake whale buys: in September, 61% of bundle money ($1.2B) came as single buys of ≥1,000 SOL in the PumpSwap pool within ~1 s of launch, on coins that had already filled their curve. The money came back out through other wallets.
  • Snipers as a group made only $31.5M on sales ($15.2M counting unsold bags as zero); 54% of sniper wallets ended up ahead and the top 100 took $13.1M.

Platform watch: nothing breaks

  • Meteora: DBC 0.2.2 is still set for Oct 15 ~10 PM CT (covered 10-11).
  • Raydium: no changelog entries after Sep 30.
  • Solana: the pending mainnet feature gates are Alpenglow (still no epoch) plus SVM internals (SHA512 syscall, address-space and direct-mapping changes). None of them changes the transaction format.
  • Jupiter: nothing after the Oct 7 v1 opt-in (covered 10-10).

Sources

  1. https://bitquery.io/investigations/pump-fun-snipers-bundles
  2. https://www.pumppill.org/learn/bundles-can-they-get-out
  3. https://t.me/s/pump_tech_updates
  4. https://github.com/pump-fun/pump-public-docs
  5. https://docs.meteora.ag/developer-guides/dbc/changelog
  6. https://docs.raydium.io/reference/changelog
  7. https://github.com/anza-xyz/agave/wiki/Feature-Gate-Tracker-Schedule

Evidence grades: A = large dataset, B = official docs, C = vendor/thread/small sample. Research notes for education only. Not financial advice.